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EIA: July STEO boosts outlook for 2026 fuel ethanol production

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By Erin Krueger

July 10, 2025

Operations Business Markets 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2026 fuel ethanol production and fuel ethanol blending in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 8. The outlook for exports was unchanged.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has announced the sugarcane harvest was negatively impacted by rains during the first half of June. Total ethanol production was down, but corn ethanol production continued to grow.

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The California Senate Committee on Transportation on July 2 voted unanimously to advance a bill that aims to immediately authorize the use of E15 within California until state agencies complete the required evaluation process for the fuel blend.

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The U.S. exported 184.67 million gallons of ethanol and 918,108 metric tons of distillers grains in May, according to data released by the USDA on July 3. Exports of both products were up when compared to the previous month.

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CARB on June 27 announced amendments to the state’s LCFS regulations will take effect beginning on July 1. The amended regulations were approved by the agency in November 2024, but implementation was delayed due to regulatory clarity issues.

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With a Middle East crisis once again roiling global oil markets, a new report shows that American-made ethanol keeps gasoline prices down—saving drivers well over $50 billion each year, or 39 cents per gallon.

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A pan-European road trip featuring cars and trucks powered by renewable fuels logged 77,500 kilometers across 16 countries in a real-world demonstration that these fuels deliver significant GHG reductions.

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The USGC has added Sarah McLeeson as its new trade policy coordinator. McLeeson will organize staff and member travel, make arrangements for visiting trade teams and facilitate program planning and execution.

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In June, the USGC held its third African Buyers and Sellers Conference in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, bringing together more than 95 attendees from across the continent to meet with U.S. feed grain suppliers and establish trade relationships.

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Representatives from the USGC, Growth Energy and the RFA recently conducted a strategic mission to Southeast Asia (SEA), underscoring the U.S. ethanol industry’s support for ethanol policy and technical advancement in Vietnam and the Philippines.

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Production and use of renewable ethanol from ePURE members and other EU producers reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by an average of 79% compared to fossil fuels in 2024, according to newly certified data.

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Legislation introduced in the California Senate on June 23 aims to cap the price of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits as part of a larger effort to overhaul the state’s fuel regulations and mitigate rising gas prices.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down nearly 3% the week ending June 20, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on June 25. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up 1% and exports fell by 33%.

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The government of Brazil on June 25 announced it will increase the mandatory blend of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the mandatory blend of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, effective Aug. 1.

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The EU on June 20 suspended tariff preferences on non-fuel ethanol imported from Pakistan. ePURE, the Euoprean renewable ethanol association, said the action is an important step toward restoring fair competition.

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In June, the U.S. Grains Council signed a renewed MOU with Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to strengthen bilateral trade of animal feed and biofuels and expand technical support to the Vietnamese agricultural industry.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down 1% the week ending June 13, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on June 18. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up nearly 2% and exports were up 8%.

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The USDA hosted a trade mission to Lima, Peru, from June 9-12 aimed at expanding market access and boosting U.S. agricultural exports. The agency identified ethanol as one of the products for which there is strong export opportunity.

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The USGC and the Secretariat of Energy Development of the State of Tamaulipas in May signed a MOU establishing a cooperative framework to promote ethanol vehicle programs to decarbonize public transportation and support U.S. ethanol exports.

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The U.S. Department of Commerce on June 10 confirmed the termination of 14 discretionary federal advisory committees, including one aimed at boosting the competitiveness of U.S. renewable energy and energy efficiency exports

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In May, U.S. Grains Council Chairwoman Verity Ulibarri and USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand traveled to Beijing and Hong Kong, China to meet with key industry counterparts and join the USDA’s Agribusiness Trade Mission.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production expanded by 1% the week ending June 6, reaching a record high 1.12 million barrels per day. The previous record was at 1.119 million barrels per day in November 2024.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecasts for 2025 and 2026 ethanol exports were also revised up.

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RFA CEO: Time to unleash American ethanol

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By Renewable Fuels Association

June 10, 2025

In keynote remarks today at the International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo in Omaha, Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper laid out the importance of ethanol for energy independence and the rural farm economy.

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A Turning Point for Europe and Biofuels?

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By David Carpintero

June 10, 2025

Faced with an uncertain transatlantic trade relationship, European leaders have begun to re-think certain policy priorities in a way that emphasizes domestic assets and competitiveness.

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In May, USGC Director of Global Ethanol Export Development Alicia Koch traveled to Costa Rica to join USGC Regional Ethanol Consultant Federico Salcedo in attending the 2025 International Conference of the Latin American Bioeconomy Network.

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The U.S. exported 172.27 million gallons of ethanol in April and 894,197 metric tons of distillers grains, according to data released by the USDA on June 5. Exports of both products remained strong, but were down when compared to April 2024.

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The California Assembly on June 4 voted 77 to zero in favor of a bill that aims to immediately authorize the use of E15 within California until state agencies complete the required evaluation process for the fuel blend and issue a decision.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up nearly 5% the week ending May 30, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on June 4. Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were up 1% and exports were up 127%.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has released data showing sugarcane processing and total ethanol production were both down during the first half of May. Corn ethanol production continued to trend higher.

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