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USDA increases outlook for FY 2025 ethanol export values

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By Erin Krueger

June 02, 2025

Markets Business 

The USDA Economic Research Service on May 29 released its latest quarterly trade outlook report, announcing the agency now expects the value of fiscal year (FY) 2025 ethanol exports to reach $4.3 billion, up from the February outlook of $4.2 billion.

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The U.S. Grains Council, in collaboration with the Korea Biofuel Forum, a biofuel advocacy group, held its annual conference in Seoul in mid-May with the goal of promoting biofuel’s economic and environmental benefits to South Korean stakeholders.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up 2% the week ending May 23, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 29. Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were down 3% and exports were down 30%.

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During the past six weeks, 10 taxis in Monterrey, Mexico converted to flex fuel technology and traveled more than 43,000 miles, using in excess of 1,500 gallons of E85. The trial resulted in reduced operating costs and emissions.

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USGC Multilateral Ethanol Policy Manager Linda Schmid attended the International Energy Agency’s Fuels Workshop in Paris to engage in discussions on the challenges and areas that call for greater policy attention to energy production and demand.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production expanded by 4% the week ending May 16, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 21. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down 2% and exports fell by nearly 18%.

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In April, U.S. Grains Council staff traveled to Antalya, Turkey, to participate in the Seventh International Poultry Meat Congress and identify opportunities to increase sales of U.S. CFP and DDGS to the country.

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UNICA, the sugarcane industry association, has reported that sugarcane harvesting during the second half of April was impacted by rains. Sugarcane ethanol production was down, but corn ethanol production continued to expand.

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In April, the USGC’s regional offices in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Tunis, Tunisia collaborated to host the Council’s third International Aquaculture Conference in Cairo, Egypt to promote the use of U.S. CFP and DDGS in aquaculture diets.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production fell by nearly 3% the week ending May 9, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 14. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up 1% and exports were down 12%.

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During her trade delegation visit to the U.K., U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rollins met with the U.K. Department for Energy Security and other officials to ensure fair market access for ethanol and wood pellets.

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Renewables Industries Canada discusses the country's shifting narrative on climate.

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The Trump administration on May 8 announced a new trade deal with the U.K. that the White House said will create a $5 billion export opportunity for U.S. farmers, ranchers and producers, including more than $700 million in ethanol exports.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production fell by nearly 2% the week ending May 2, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on May 7. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down 1% and exports were down nearly 9%.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its outlook for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 6. The outlook for fuel ethanol exports was lowered.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine has announced the keynote speakers for the 2025 International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo (FEW) being held June 9-11, 2025, at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska. The general session will take place June 10.

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The U.S. exported 195.8 million gallons of ethanol and 1.03 million metric tons of distillers grains in March, according to data released by the USDA on May 6. Exports of both products were up when compared to February.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has released data showing sugarcane processing was up slightly during the first half of April. Total ethanol production was up nearly 12%, and corn ethanol production was up more than 41%.

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In April, U.S. Grains Council Regional Director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Ramy H. Taieb led a delegation to Nigeria to study the country’s potential for enhanced ethanol consumption.

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The EU’s continued discrimination against the use of sustainable crop-based biofuels to reduce emissions from transport has left Europe needlessly reliant on fossil fuels, with many Member States still falling short of renewable energy targets.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up 1% the week ending April 25, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 30. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down slightly and exports were up 88%.

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The Iowa Corn Growers Association, alongside more than 20 other state corn organizations and the National Corn Growers Association, is formally calling on Ford Motor Co. to reinstate its production of flex fuel vehicles (FFVs).

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The U.S. Grains Council is soliciting applications for its seven Advisory Teams (A-Teams) to serve the 2025-2027 term. One of the A-Teams focuses exclusively on ethanol. Applications are due April 30.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has released final data for the 2024-’25 harvest season, reporting record high ethanol production and sales despite reduced sugarcane milling. Corn ethanol production was up significantly.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up 2% the week ending April 18, according to date released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 23. Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were down 5% and exports were down 45%.

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USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand, USGC Regional Director for Latin America Marri Tejada and USGC Regional Ethanol Consultant Federico Salcedo visited Guatemala and Panama to enhance trade relations.

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U.S. ethanol exports have crossed the 1-billion-gallon threshold halfway through Marketing Year (MY) 2024-'25, a 27% increase from the same period in MY 2023-‘24, according to new information from the USDA.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down 1% the week ending April 11, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 16. Stocks of fuel ethanol were also down 1% and exports were down 21%.

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The government of Vietnam on March 31 issued a decree reducing the the country’s Most-Favored-Nation import tariff rates for a variety of commodities and products, including ethanol. The MFN rates apply to imports from the U.S.

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CoBank’s latest quarterly research report predicts domestic ethanol blending will remain stable or increase slightly this year. However, policy uncertainty and trade disruptions due to tariff disputes could negatively impact the industry.

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